Do you have a plan for tomorrow? I don’t mean a trade or anything complex like that; I mean a simple plan. For example, it could be to wake up at 6am, have a shower, get dressed, have some breakfast, travel to work for 8.30 and steal 30 mins of flexi time – that kind of plan. If you can think of a plan, I’d like you to be part of my 2013 trading experiment. All you need to do to take part is answer one simple question: did the plan work out how it was supposed to?
You have to be honest here or else you’ll miss the point. Did your plan work out exactly?
Take a minute to think about it and then post a short comment below. I don’t need any real detail – although any examples of how smoothly things went (or didn’t go) would be cool to read I suppose. You’d be surprised at how mundane events that you don’t normally remember after they’ve happened can sound altogether more life-changing when looked at in a different context – like what we’re going to do here.
Let me give you a short example just so you get what I’m going on about.
Today is Tuesday and on Tuesday I take my 17 month old son to his grandas for the day so I can come back home and work in peace. I aim to arrive at my dad’s for 9am. If I take the right route and leave at the right time, I get there at 9am with maybe 2 minutes either side. A simple plan that should work every time.
I made this plan 10 months ago when I first started taking my son over and it’s never really changed. But the thing is, I don’t always make it for 9 even with 2 minutes spare either side and this is despite me doing the same processes every time.
Almost every other day I’m either too late or too early and the reason is quite simple. Life happens.
What I mean by that exactly is that someone else’s plan hasn’t quite gone according to how they wanted it to and they have a knock-on effect on someone else’s plan who then has a knock-on effect to someone else’s plan who then effects me.
This then makes me late and I have to justify the reason to a grumpy granda who was expecting me 25 minutes ago and now he isn’t able to get started on his plan because of me. And on it goes…
But what would happen if I didn’t have an exact plan and instead of setting off at 8.30am every morning, I threw 3 coins in the air and changed my set off time, route and which car I used depending on how the coins landed? Would I be any more effective at arriving on time?
Life just is, you see, and sometimes making plans, no matter how well prepared you think they are, just don’t work. In fact, how do you even know you’ve prepared the ultimate plan? When you’ve dotted all the i’s and crossed all the t’s? Exhausted all your ideas? Ran out of time?
The sun has no conscious mind, yet it rises every day and gives us light; the plant has no intelligible thoughts yet manages to grow enough so that it can pollenate our crops; our crops don’t think about feeding us but rather, just grow big and juicy. There is no grand design or architect here, there is just life.
Consider this, if you had all the time in the world and wanted to make the ultimate plan – or carry out the ultimate science experiment – you’d never get past the planning stage because you’d be gathering infinite amounts of data and trying to plan for every possible eventuality.
At some point, you’d have to use something else to get things moving. What would this mysterious something be?
Your gut feel and instinct that you’d planned enough and that now was the time for action…
Why chance, intuition and spontaneity will form the basis of my big 2013 trading experiment.
The idea is simple. I want to compound £500 starting capital at 20% per month.
In order to achieve this, I’m going to….aha, but coming up with a plan would seem to miss the point, don’t you think? I’ve often read and heard it said that the ‘markets are alive’, or that ‘it has it’s own mind’ or that ‘it doesn’t care about your plan’, or any other number of similar expressions that we would normally reserve for living things.
Is the market a living thing?
I believe that it’s maybe not in the literal sense, as if it has it’s own beating heart and cogniscent mind, but certainly it is in it’s chaotic and spontaneous nature. If it is alive, then that would mean it, like all of us and every other form of life you can think of, has only one purpose and that is to exist and grow.
This would also mean it is just as reliant on the interdependence of everything in much the same way that we are and that there is no grand design or plan behind any of it. If this is the case, then perhaps casting three coins in the sand every Tuesday at dusk will get me the return that I want.
I’m actually not joking here and if you can think of an even cooler method I can use to trade then please post it below and I’ll choose the one that sounds most interesting. I love the idea of the I Ching as a starting point if you need any ideas 😉
I don’t know how I’ll apply these methods yet, but every month I will apply them somehow to some market and post all the results here.
Maybe it really could be as simple as 3 coins at dusk; heads commodities, tales FX, heads gold, tales silver, heads long, heads short – who know?
Why is a mouse when it spins?